Contagion Effect of Dollar and Euro on the Indian Stock Market
Article Details
Pub. Date
:
July, 2012
Product Name
:
The IUP Journal of Applied
Finance
Product Type
:
Article
Product Code
:
IJAF51207
Author Name
:
Santosh Kumar, Raju G and Tanveer Shahab
Availability
:
YES
Subject/Domain
:
Finance
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:
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No.
of Pages
:
11
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Abstract
The study investigates the interactions between changes in the exchange value of Indian rupee for dollar and euro, and returns on different indices of National Stock Exchange (NSE) in the Indian stock market using daily data of the last ten years. Sensitivity of dollar and euro is computed using Adler and Dumas (1984) model, along with impulse response function with some modifications.
Description
The current account balance has constantly witnessed negative trend ranging from –0.4% of
GDP in 2004 to –3.3% in 2009 due to widening export-import growth in the last ten years.
While the current account deficit kept on increasing for the last ten years, the capital account
has shown a mixed trend making the exchange rate more volatile. It is noticeable that the
capital account recorded a mixed growth trend ranging from 0.6 to 8.8% of GDP and currently
stood at 5.5%. Huge influx or mass exit, both directly distort the supply and demand dynamics
of currency market. However, the expansion of trade deficit is partially offset by net capital
flows. Particularly, in both the accounts, the dollar has become the chief contagion source
due to the highest number of FIIs of US origin, followed by eurozone. However, in this direction
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken a significant step by implementing currency futures
in August 2008 to hedge against the exchange rate fluctuations to a certain extent. This
lends a strong support to the fact that exposure of currency transmitted to India via current
and capital accounts has an important role in changing the supply and demand of currency,
which in turn may affect indices, industries or firms depending on their exposure level to the
currency.
Keywords
Applied Finance Journal, Contagion Effect, Indian Stock Market, Adler Dumas Model, Results and Discussion, Augmented Dickey Fuller, Data and Methodology, Models and Variables, DOLLAR and EURO.